Summarizes migration data by state from three sources: the Internal Revenue Service, the American Community Survey, and the University of Wisconsin.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

On a decadal basis, net migration to Arizona during the 2010s was the least since the 1960s. Between 2010 and 2020, Arizona’s net migration was 466,994 — 41 percent less than during the 2000s and 54 percent less than during the 1990s. Arizona’s net migration during the 2010s was sixth highest among the states but far less than the 2.5 million in Florida and the 1.9 million in Texas. Washington, North Carolina, and Geogia also had greater net migration than Arizona.

For decades, Arizona’s net migration has consisted disproportionately of young adults and those of retirement age. From the 1970s through the 1990s, the number of net migrants between the ages of 15 and 34 was 70 percent higher than the number between the ages of 55 and 74. In contrast, the number of net migrants to Arizona during the 2010s between the ages of 15 to 34 was 18 percent less than the number aged 55 to 74. While changes in the nation’s age distribution contribute to this change over time in the age distribution of Arizona’s net migrants, the net migration rate to Arizona of the older population has not fallen as much as that of young adults. The net migration rate of those of middle age has dropped the most.

On an annual basis, net migration to Arizona is highly volatile, varying with the economic cycle. Net migration was quite low during the early years of the last economic expansion (2011 through 2015), as Arizona’s economy was slow to recover. In the late 2010s, net migration increased but never matched the peak of the prior expansion. Net migration to Arizona fell substantially in 2021 and 2022, as Arizona’s economic growth rate was barely greater than the national average. The pandemic and the expansion of remote work may be partially responsible for changes in the geography of Arizona’s net migration in recent years. The weakest net flows of the 2001-to-2022 period occurred in 2021 and 2022 with a number of states, including nearly all of the southeastern states and some of the New England and Great Lakes states. In contrast, Arizona experienced its greatest net inflows from Oregon and Washington during 2021 and 2022. It is unclear whether this represents a short-term aberration or a shift in migration patterns.

Arizona’s net in-migration of 36,714 in 2022 ranked seventh among the states. Florida had the highest figure at 244,330, followed by Texas at 181,903 and North Carolina at 82,870. South Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia also had figures greater than Arizona.

Comparing the age distribution of migrants to and from Arizona with the national average in the 2018-to-2022 period, the share of domestic in-migration to Arizona was substantially higher among those 55 and older, and lower among those younger than 40. Domestic out-migration from Arizona had a similar, but less pronounced, age distribution difference from the nation.

Migration had little effect on the educational attainment of Arizona’s population in the 2018-to-2022 period. While migrants on average are better educated than nonmigrants, the educational attainment of in-migrants to Arizona and out-migrants from the state was similar.

In terms of income, Arizona benefited from migration in the 2018-to-2022 period. A closer look shows that in 2022, aggregate income in Arizona increased due to the net in-migration of adults at least 45 years of age, while the net in-migration of those younger than 35 had a small negative effect on income.